BLDUP Update 07/12/23

state of the market
by: James Petrylka, BLDUP FL

Recently Hillsborough County Property Appraiser Bob Henriquez hosted a “State of the Market” event featuring opening remarks from Tampa Mayor Jane Castor and a keynote address from Ryan Severino, Chief Economist and Head of U.S. Research at BentallGreenOak. The program also included three-panel discussions covering Commercial, Residential, and Financial.  

Throughout the event, the general consensus was that the Tampa market is holding up well, better than the rest of the country. Among the positives is the growth that Tampa has seen in the last few years. Property values have risen post-pandemic and there have been a number of large projects completed and active. According to Hillsborough County Property Appraiser Bob Henriquez post-pandemic, there has been $6 billion in new construction, 40% residential, 30% commercial, and 30% multifamily within the county. The challenges, which cross all areas of the market, are roads/infrastructure, high-interest rates and high insurance costs. Moving forward, given the challenges the country and local market are facing, there may be a slight downturn, but the Tampa/Hillsborough market will continue to hold up well. 

Highlights from Mayor Jane Castor’s address... 

  • Tampa is in the top five in the country in growth since 2019  

  • During the last three years there have been 122 large projects completed and there are currently 63 active large projects 

  • The biggest area of concern is transportation and infrastructure  

  • The city has secured state and federal funding for road projects, which is a positive, but there is still more needed as the roads have not caught up to the population 

  • Due to the population growth, there is a shortage of housing 

  • The majority of the new housing construction in the downtown and urban core has been high-end condominiums and apartments so there is a need for mid-range and affordable housing 

  • Several planned project, Rome Yard and Gas Worx in particular, will offer mid-range and affordable housing but more will be needed 

Three Expert Panels:

Commercial Panel - Julia Silva of JLL, Scott Garlick of Cushman Wakefield, Mike DiBlasi of CBRE, and Andy Joe Scaglione of Scaglione Investments. 

 Residential Panel - Tracey Cornelissen of Baldwin Risk Partners, Bob Glaser of Smith & Associates Real Estate, Darryl Shaw local developer, and Vincent Chillura of USAmeriBank 

Financial Panel - Owen LaFave Bank of Tampa, Patrick Storch of Patrick Storch Mortgage Team, Lorena Colin of Fidelity Mortgage, and Todd Jones of RealAdvice appraisers 

Key Take Aways from the Panel Discussions

Commercial: 

  • Concerns include inflation, a possible recession, high interest rates, insurance costs, supply chain issues and a labor shortage 

  • The industrial sector is seeing a lot of new development with retail distribution centers for companies like Amazon & Target leading the way. 

  • In Tampa/Hillsborough the land is almost all utilized and there isn’t much room for large industrial centers, so new centers are being built in Pasco County to the north Polk County to the east.  

  • The growth in population has contributed to new activity in the retail sector 

  • The office market has seen some activity as people are returning to the office post-pandemic but this activity has been dependent on geography – downtown and the urban core is doing well, the suburban areas are seeing more vacancies.  

  • Some of the suburban office buildings are being remodeled or demolished and converted to industrial properties.  

  • The market has seen an increase in investors from outside the market as Tampa has grown over the last few years.  

Residential:  

  • Tampa is an attractive market “we live where people vacation” 

  • Property values have increased, rents are increasing, and more people are renting due high interest rates 

  • Concerns are consistent with the commercial sector including high insurance costs, high interest rates, high construction costs and labor shortage 

  • There is a shortage of mid-range and affordable housing 

  • Expect to see condominiums at a lower price point but with smaller SF 

  • Until recently there was very little residential development in downtown Tampa but now people are moving back to the urban core. 

  • Mixed-use developments are more prominent - people want to live near where they work and want shopping/dining in close proximity 

  • Transportation issues/infrastructure contribute to the appeal of mixed-use developments 

Financial: 

  • Overall local economy is relatively strong led by the influx in population 

  • Concerns from banking include liquidity issues, fewer loans, community banks are struggling 

  • Sales have been steady and values are high but higher interest rates are leading to fewer refinances 

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